Application Of Bass Model In P2P Lending Diffusion

In recent years,with the booming of Internet finance,emerged many Internet financial innovation products,these products is not only the supplement of traditional financial products,also brought some challenges to the traditional financial products,and P2 P lending also with the development of this trend.In the face of the opportunities and risks,the company must face a lot of difficulties such as how to estimate the potential quantity of P2 P lengding and when to make investment decisions.These problems can only be solved by predicting the spread of P2 P lending behaviors,and thus maintain a competitive edge in the field of P2 P lengding.In 1969,Bass predicted the proliferation of 11 kinds of durable goods and published the Bass model.Since then,a large number of articles have emerged in the field of product diffusion.Many scholars have contributed to the continuous development of the innovation diffusion model based on the premise assumption of Bass model,the estimation method of parameters and the continuous revision and expansion of three elements of the Bass model.Because Internet financial innovation products are soft innovation with information and technology as the main carrier,there are many differences with traditional innovative products,it is necessary to analyze the propagation characteristics of P2 P online lending,which needs to be based on the Bass model theory,and add different characteristics of P2 P lending to optimize and correct the model.Therefore,on this basis,this article will start work: First,the applicability of the test model to predict the proliferation of P2 P loan behavior.This paper verifies the prediction of whether the model is applicable to the P2 P network lending behavior from the three aspects of the basic principles of the model,modeling elements and data requirements.Second,build a predictive model for the diffusion of loan and credit behavior of P2 P networks under the perspective of dynamic adopter's potential.Third,build a P2 P lending behavior diffusion model from the perspective of online word-of-mouth.This paper takes the P2 P lending behavior as the research object and improves the three variables in the Bass model to meet the characteristics of P2 P lending.The main innovations are: changing the static adopter's potential into dynamic,and replacing the fixed potential in the original model with dynamic functions,which provides a basis foraccurately predicting the potential of P2 P lending.Second,the factors that influence the online word-of-mouth in Bass are compared to the effects of word-of-mouth,mass media,and online word-of-mouth.Provide a most suitable information transmission route for the promotion of P2 P online loan platform.