Research On The Developing Strategy And Nonlinear Prediction Of The China Railway 13th Bureau Group Corporation

Construction industry as a pillar industry plays an important role in national economic development. China is now in a period of rapid development of economic construction and invested a large number of world-renowned large construction projects in recent years. In the next 20 years, China's infrastructure, technological innovation, and real estate investment in fixed assets will maintain at a high level, and the construction market is facing important development opportunities. The thesis predictied the gross output and profit by non-linear time series analysis and projection regression prediction method, and analyzed the development strategy of China Railway 13th Bureau Group Corporation during"Shier Wu".First, the development of China's construction market was analyzed. we discussed the development opportunities and favorable conditions of the group in the new period based on the development status, and pointed out that the group faced some problems such as extensive administered, differences in operation as well as overseas competition knowledge and strength is not strong and not high share of overseas markets .Then using non-linear time series analysis and projection regression prediction method, the output and profits of China Railway 13th Bureau Group Corporation were forecasted during "Shier Wu" period. Predicted results show that the enterprise gross output value will maintain about 8% annual growth rate and by 2015, enterprises will reach 26 billion Yuan. The profit will be about 15% annual growth rate and by 2015 it will be 0.45 billion Yuan.Finally, we studied the development strategy of the 13th Bureau Group. We elaborated the development concept and proposed the development goals during "Shier Wu" period of the group. To achieve this goal and ensure "Shier Wu" development goals, the group need take management innovation strategy, technology innovation strategy and business strategy information technology security policies and measures.