Research Of China Digital TV Development Strategy And Nonlinear Forecasting

Digital television has been the domain with the most developing future in the broadcast and television industry. In our country, however, it squirms slowly in its forwarding process, which is far away from the developing layout made up by the Broadcast and Television Institute. The main causation of it is that we are short of the scientific and precise prediction on the digital television capitals, which has a great effect on the investing flame of enterprises to digital television. In addition, it cuts off the digital television programs, and the receiving facilities can not gain ground as soon as possible. At the same time, the supplying chain in the digital and television industry has not formed between program producers, network providers, and TV platform suppliers. All of these have become the obstructions of the digital television developing in our country. As a consequence, this paper takes a forecast. The forecast carried on digital television market capacity will not only provide the investment analysis basis for investors, and be useful to formulate the relative national policy but have the meaning to tutor the development of digital television industry.This paper regards the digital television market capacity as a non-linear function of the population, GDP, the average income per year of one person and the digital television charge standards, establishes the predictable model with the nerve network BP algorithm , and then carries on the forecast. In addition, for the first time, the paper predicts the population quantity, the yearly average income per person and the GDP by using the supporting vector mechanism theory, the taking stochastic gradient return law and the projection seeking out the traces return law. Then the results will be compared with those obtained by other means like the non-linear time series law, the transect returned law and the artificial nerve network law. This paper also forecasts the digital television charge standard with the grey theory. It is indicated through the examination that the method used by this paper has some advantage: small forecast error, high forecast precision.