Research On The Relations Of China's Imbalance Of Internal Economic Structure And External Double Surpluses

Since the concept of"Internal and external equilibrium"being put forward by James Edward Meade in the 1950s, the problem of internal and external equilibrium has increasingly become an important research topic of macroeconomics in condition of open economy. The analysis framework of international and external equilibrium continued with the development of"Meada conflict","Tinbergen's Rule","Mundell-Fleming Model"etc. With the deepening of the division of international labor and the tighting of international economic links, achieving the goal of all internal and external equilibrium is becoming more and more difficult. China is inevitable to face the imbalance problem in the progress of gradually integrating into the world economy and playing an more important role.Based on the macro-economical theories of National Income Identity, Absorb Model and Two Shortage Model, using methods of theoretical and empirical analysis, with the starting point of the relations for the elements of internal and external balance, we made empirical analysis for the relationship of China's internal and external economic variables, to find out the causal relationships of the economic variables and the characteristics as well as basic reasons of internal and external imbalances.The internal economic imbalance caused the external imbalance, and the latter affects the former. China's internal imbalance is shown by the imbalance of the proportion of saving, consumption and investment, which lead to the shortage of internal absorption, as well as serious"Savings shortage". The surplus of output is digested by net exports. On the other hand, external imbalance affect the internal structural imbalance. To solve the problem of China's internal and external imbalance, fundamentally, we first need to make clear of the relationship of government and market, and optimize it. Through the active fiscal policy and looser monetary policy, expand the domestic demand. Adhere to the road of industrialization and marketization, and promote the level of modernization. And coordinate the relationships of investment, consumption and exports.