Study On The Mechanism Of The Agricultural Economic Growth In Economic Belt On The Southern Slope Of The Tianshan Mountains

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy; the county economy is the carrier in the construction of new countryside. The southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is an important region of grain, cotton and fruit production base in Xinjiang. This paper combined the county economy and agricultural economic to research and analysis, and provides theory basis for Economic belt on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains.At first, this paper certified the research region included 16 counties of Bayingoleng autonomous state and Aksu state of two districts, municipal and county. The author selected 1978-2007 agricultural data, the agricultural economic growth and development trend of south slope belt that day county agricultural development situation maintained steady and fast growth momentum of development, slightly above the level, South slope belt county agriculture days of economic development is divided into four stages: 1.the 1978-1988 agriculture developed stage, 2.the 1989-1995 get the rapidly developed stage, 3.the 1996-2001 stage of slow agricultural development, 4.the 2002-2007 the Economic belt on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains get into faster development stage.Secondly, the article through calculation, standard deviation coefficient to analysis the county agriculture development trend of regional differences of the south and north of the Tianshan mountains slope belt, the result is: the year of 1987-2007 in south slope belt within days of agricultural county economic development level difference has increased, compared with the county agricultural of the north and south economic belt differences level is the gap between the belt in the volatile, from the general trend of experienced is a narrow then decreased after growth and increasing process, just a "W" shape.The third, the paper uses the method of factor analysis to find the main factor. According to the main factors and scholar knows that affect factors are effectively irrigated area, chemical fertilizer and agricultural machinery, agricultural labor force. And using the Solow method by calculating TFP(total factor productivity), the main force of the agricultural economic growth is agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizers at first, followed by agricultural labor force, the total factor productivity representative of agricultural science and technology is the third, the farmland and irrigation is the minimum. With the comparative analysis shows that the total factor productivity growth, the total growth of agricultural machinery, effectively irrigated area factor of the Economic belt on the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains is lower than the north belt. The agricultural labor of south belt is higher than north slope, the north slope in agricultural production of agricultural labor force function Indochina, south slope of agricultural economic to the economic development of northern still have a large gap.The fourth, compared with "five-year" plan of south slope belt. The agricultural production and development main motivation comes from fertilizers and farm machinery, secondly, the application for agricultural labor, agricultural science and technology, professional knowledge and agricultural economic growth for the positive development. The ninth five-year plan period, the main agricultural growth no fertilizer, and by the agricultural mechanization of agricultural labor force instead. "10th" and "11th five-year plan" period, south slope belt is still elements such as chemical fertilizers, manpower mainly based on the input on agricultural production factors type.