A Study On State-owned Joint Stock Commercial Banks' Risk Early-warning System And Risk Assessment

Financial system has the internal fragility. Nowadys the financial crisis, the whole world are facing, has thrusted great impact on the global economy. Risk early warning system for China's banking sector is not perfect.The risks it is facing are increasing, with its continuing integration into the global financial system in the process.In particular, the state-owned joint stock commercial banks in China's banking sector have an important position, and their ability to respond to crises is worth thinking about. Therefore, to study how to build their advanced early-warning systems, and constantly improve the problems are of great significance.At first,This paper studies the basic theory and its development, and comparatively analyzes the risk-early warning systems of the developed countries.Then this paper analyzes the state-owned joint stock commercial banks'main risks, and summarizes their internal risk early-warning system'establishment and the development of the technology. Finally, an indicator system of state-owned joint stock commercial banks is established at microscopic view and macroscopic view.Then the author discusses the risks of the stated-owned joint stock commercial banks and the likelihood of crisis happening by using factor analysis.The main contribution of this paper is establishing a comprehensive indicator system of the stated-owned joint stock commercial banks, and analyzing the risks at microscopic view and macroscopic view.The author holds the opinion that the basic circumstance the stated-owned joint stock commercial banks are facing is good, but the risks of their internal basic business are still existing.The technology of the stated-owned joint stock commercial banks'risk management has made great development, and the risk early-warning system is also developing continuously.