| Recent years, there are large fluctuations in China's real estate prices, especially in the first line cities. The rapid rise in house prices will inevitably result in a rise in house prices will continue to market expectations, in which the expected effect, the real estate speculative trading will become increasingly serious. Real estate transactions in the speculative trading in real estate prices have become an important factor. Therefore, this article from a speculative point of view is expected to be modeled on the real estate prices through the prices deviate from the quantitative indicators for early warning and proposed preventive measures.In this paper, real estate prices as a key object of study, theoretical analysis and empirical analysis using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of a combination of research methods, the integrated use of systems theory, the general method of correlation analysis, factor analysis and regression analysis methods such as multi-disciplinary knowledge, combining the characteristics of real estate and real estate price formation of the actual situation of China's real estate prices were modeling and empirical.Paper first clear definition of the real estate industry and analyzes the real estate price formation mechanism, through the analysis of the factors affecting real estate prices, revealed that real estate prices is a system by multiple factors.Secondly, the speculation in the real estate market is the direct reason for real estate price soaring, base on the speculation, set up two different kinds of models and the second one is the amendment of the first one.Finally, this paper tries to establish a pre-warning system for real estate price soaring aiming at the speculation behavior in the real estate market. This paper choose guidelines divided into tow aspects named investor speculation index and consumer speculation index combining with the method of Efficiency Coefficient to compose the frame and uses it to analyze the precaution problem of real estate price in China. Then paper also provides some policies to manage the prices. |
