Applied Research On Capital Investment Decision Of Real Estate Base On Grey Real Option

The real estate concerns the national economy and the people's livelihood, and it is a steady pillar industry of the national economic development. As a result of real estate investment have development period long, amount of investment heavy, long to fluctuate heavy characteristic with price payback period, these make the investment decision of the real estate face the great risk. The real option has remedied the deficiency of the traditional investment decision method as a kind of new investment decision method, being widely applied to include the real estate in the field of investment decision inside, but the limitation of the real option and uncertainty of the real estate investment factor, cause the investment decision result of the real estate to produce the deviation, influencing the accuracy of the investment decision.The paper combines the traditional decision method to generally be used at present, explains the real option theory in detail, analyses the difference and relationship between the two. It has pointed out the project value of the real estate is formed by traditional net present value (NPV) and options worth. While probing into the limitation of the real option model, the paper regards growth option emerging in the development of real estate as the research object. combining the traditional net present value method, the grow option model and grey cluster's analysis, it sets up the new investment of developing real estate and appraise the rule:ENPV= VN+λVo, being increased policy factor, management factor and competition factor that the option model will be neglected,etc. and embodied with this index of option coefficient-λ. Finally, combined the instance the paper carries on the positive research and analysis.The paper develops the growth option model in the investment decision and carries on research by stages to the real estate, sets up the new investment decision of development of real estate and appraises the rule. It uses option coefficient A to solve the problem that neglected the factor by the option model, enables it to comparatively assess the project value of investment of developing real estate accurately, to provide effective support for the investors'decision.