Study Of Estimate And Decision-Making In Real Estate Investment Project Based On The Theory Of Real Option

Real option, as a new theoretical approach, derived from finance, was gradually applied to such fields as investment decision-making, financial management, and value assessment. Its potential lies in recovering flexible value in project and adjusting decision-making by the exposure of more information. More importantly, real option is one brand-new thinking mode, and changed the traditional decision-maker's thinking mode. Real estate investment has some characteristics like real options, including large investment scale, long operating term and easily affected by policy, which makes decision to project more uncertain and harder. Because of the shortcoming in the traditional approach to decision–making in real estate investment, when due with decision-making questions of real estate investment in uncertain world, often under estimates the value of the project, thus influence decision-making. Introduces real option method to the real estate development project investment decision-making, can make up the traditional appraisal method the insufficiency, correctly appraised the project value, with improves policy-maker's thinking mode, causes the decision-making to be more scientific. By actual unifies, qualitative and the quantitative analysis as well as the comparative analysis method through the theory in this article, systematically introduced the characteristics of real option, value and pricing-model in real estate project investment decision-making, and has elaborated the process of its creative use in real estate investment, and the union example, by comparative analysis with the traditional method, confirmed real option in the appraisal project value aspect accuracy, further impels the application of real option method.This paper introduced the characteristics, the significance and pricing model of real option approach in real estate investment decision-making systematically. To real option pricing aspect, introduced the B-S model with emphasis and binary tree model, analyzed the differences of real option and the financial option, and analyzed the thought characteristics of real option method. This paper also systematically analyzed the insufficiency of tradition decision-making method, and contrasted good and bad points of real option method. After analyzed the characteristics of real estate development investment project, the real option characteristics of decision-making in real estate investment project have been analyzed, then the kind of real option in the decision-making of real estate investment has analyzed. According to land supply policy in our country at present, produces the possible real option type that exists in the real estate project was the type of waiting-to-investment. By analysis the general application frame of real option, proposed the application frame of real option applies in the real estate investment decision-making, proposed the establishment dynamic decision-making analysis frame. By analysis the opportunity of applying real option method to real estate investment decision-making, given the computational method of the real option pricing in real estate investment and the parameter determination in the pricing formula. More importantly, discuss the definite method of assets property value, the cost, the undulation rate and the value leak rate.