Empirical Study On Volatility Forecast Of Oil Price Based On RBF Neural Network And The Impact On China's Economy

After the twenty-first century, the international crude oil prices have rendered a different movement style, of which Short-term fluctuations is clearly increasing. It is hard to employ the traditional long-term factors to explain this phenomenon reasonably and effectively. Based on this special background, this research applied Hodrick-Prescott filter method to remove the trends from time series data. And then tried to study the interaction between the influencing factors and the short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices using Econometric Methods. Finally, we constructed short-term fluctuations in crude oil price forecasting model based on radial basis function neural network.With the increasingly volatile international crude oil prices, the reform of China's oil pricing mechanism, as well as the increased dependence on foreign crude oil result in that China's economic development is affected by the international crude oil market more and more. Therefore, this article further use Granger causality test and other research methods to examine the relation between short-term fluctuations in international crude oil prices and China's macro-economy and discuss the transmission path, relevant research conclusions are as follows:(1) The short-term fluctuations in international crude oil prices have a strong memory, in addition, the exchange of U.S. dollar is also an important Explanatory variables.(2) Fitting result of the forecasting model based on radial basis function neural network is significantly better than the traditional multiple linear regression prediction model, which confirms that external factors on the fluctuations of international crude oil prices in short-term have non-linear characteristics.(3) Short-term fluctuations in international crude oil price have a direct interpretation of the role of China's consumer price index and the real inter-bank repo interest rate, however we didn't find Short-term fluctuations shows any direct impact on real industrial value added and broad money supply.