Research On The Impact Of RMB Appreciation, Depreciation And Its Volatility On China's Foreign Trade-based On The Empirical Analysis Since 2005

Since July 2005 China reform the RMB Exchange Rate Mechanism,the RMB exchange rate against the USD continued appreciating and the volatility is gradually expanding. RMB appreciation has become a focus point in the world. Changes in the exchange rate will affect the country's trade flows and it's foreign trade. Therefore, the study of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on import and export trade is of great significance for China's future trade and economic development.The paper established the model of the impact of RMB appreciation, depreciation and its volatility on China's import and export trade, using qualitative analysis and draws the conclusion: In the short term, the remarkable lag effect is negative on both import and export trade.Long-term effect is different, that is,the former is basically no influence on import and export,however, the latter is positive influence. The net effect depends on both the aggregation effect: In the short term,RMB appreciation will reduce export and add import, trade balance deterioration; In the long-term,both import and export increase.Due to the amplitude exports increased is more than imports, trade balance improve. Finally, based on empirical conclusions,this paper put forward related policy and suggestions from the government and enterprises angle.