Research On The Passenger Volume Forecasting Of NanChang-GanZhou Railway With Four Stage Method

Generally intercity passenger trains refer to the short train running between cities. As the passenger trains increase speed, intercity passenger trains will gradually increase running distance. China intercity passenger trains grow along with the rapid development of the road passenger transportasion and the fierce competition in the market. With the rapid rise of highway, the main position of railway passenger is greatly impacted, and the railway passenger flow mainly distributes to the highway paralleling to the railway. It is a way developing the long-distance passenger transport including intercity passenger transport to improve the share of railway passenger market.All along, the Beijing-Kowloon railway as the north-south trunk road network together with the Beijing-Guangzhou railway share a large number of north-south passenger and freight traffic exchanges, highlight the role of rail network. As the capital of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang is an important transportation hub and political, economic, technological, cultural center. At present, Nanchang to Ganzhou total passenger and freight run in the same rail line with low-quality passenger and freight transport, so it is difficult to meet the demand for passenger travel and cargo transport demand and is no obvious competitive advantage relative to other modes of transport. The new intercity railway looks as the extension of Nanchang-Kowloon Railway to the south, and realizes Beijing-Kowloon railway passenger and freight run in different lines, and will undertake a large number of long-distance passenger traffic and the intercity north-south passenger flow in the central region of Jiangxi Province, communicate Gan Long and Long Ha inter-provincial rail passengers, become the one of communication channels between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.In this paper, analysis and fully investigate the socio-economic and traffic situation and development trend of zones along the Nanchang to Ganzhou railway and affected regions, and use four-stage method to predict Nanchang to Ganzhou rail passenger traffic. The research content of the first stage is to carry out the traffic cell division, use the combination forecasting model based on grey model and multiple regression model forecasting passenger traffic generates, effectively combine a variety of factors, combinatorially optimizat the results of the linear prediction, while ensuring the prediction accuracy reduce the dispersion extent of predicting results, ensure that forecast values float in a limited range of errors. In the second stage select growth factor method and gravity model method to conduct an integrated distribution of the passenger traffic forecast, avoiding the course of partial large deviation may occur in a single forecasting model predicting. The third stage select classical Logit model and the abstract selection model conducting an integrated way in the passenger traffic forecast. The fourth stage use nothing all-allocation model to predict the distribution of passenger traffic, combined with the qualitative analysis of the project functional orientation in the national railway network and regional network planning, give the distribution of passenger traffic density of the project section. A four-stage method in the various model based on quantitative analysis combined with qualitative analysis give Nanchang to Ganzhou railway passenger traffic forecast results, increase the level of technology forecasting in the railway passenger traffic, and accumulate experiences, as well as providing a reference for the empirical research in this area.