Study On The Mode Share Forecast Based On The Analysis Of Passenger Behavior In Transportation Corridor

The mode share is the result of the passengers' options of variable transportation modes; meanwhile, it is an important basis in making the traffic facilities planning and operating strategy. Nowadays, our country is focus on developing the Dedicated Passenger Railway. The Dedicated Passenger Railway will attract a large number of passengers and change the structure of the passenger transport market in the corridor for it's advantages such as economical, high speed, huge transport capacity, safety, comfortable and high service quality. In order to analysis this influence, it is necessary to forecast the mode share in the transportation corridor.In view of the fact that the Dedicated Passenger Railway is a new thing in china and there is no reference for forecasting the mode share, the model which is chosen should accord to the passenger trip decision and adapt the situation when the Dedicated Passenger Railway is formed. In consideration of that, this paper combines with the research 'the study of the impact caused by the struction of the dedicated passenger railway in xi'an～lanzhou corridor', chooses the MNL model which formed based on the disaggregate theory to forecast the mode share in the corridor.Firstly, the passenger behavior and the process of transportation mode decision is analysised;Secondly, both the advantage and disadvantage of the mode share forecast model is analysised, and the MNL model has been selected as the method to forecast the mode share in the corridor;Then, a questionnaire is formulated and a survey is carried out in order to analysis the passenger behavior in xi'an～lanzhou corridor;Latter, the data of this survey is computed by the software TransCAD. And the transportation mode selection model is formed. Then the mode share of all the transportation modes in the corridor is forecast by this model;At last, two simple examples are used to demonstrate the practicability of the model. One is the selection of the target values of time and aped, the other is forecast the mode share when the different operating ploy is adopt.