Study On The Average Replacement Rate Of Basic Old-age Insurance System For Enterprise Employees In Urban Areas

Basic old-age insurance system is the human innovation, it can solve the problem of how to disperse the risk of family for the sense of security through institutional arrangement, reflects human civilization and social progress. But, with the advent of population aging, all the countries in the world are facing the challenge of "silver hair tide". Facing the enormous pressure of expenditure over revenue of old-age insurance fund, how to carry out the old-age insurance system reform in order to achieve the sustainable development of old-age insurance system has become to a troublesome issue for the governments. Compared with the western developed countries, the pension system problem which China faces is more and more severe and complicated. The aging of China society are coming ahead of time, the endowment insurance system and economic system transition are under way at the same time, the pace of urbanization is speeding up, all these unique backgrounds make a special significance for the selection and construction of China' endowment insurance system.Basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees is an important part of China' endowment insurance system, meanwhile, it's an important content of social security system. The replacement rate, as the object of this study, is not only a key factor to balance the revenue and expenditure of old-age insurance fund, but also an important indicator to examine the security level of basic old-age insurance. The ultimate goal of the study on basic old-age insurance replacement rate is:examining whether the old-age insurance fund and even the whole endowment insurance system run reasonably or not by comparing the real level with appropriate level of replacement rate, finding find the problem of the old-age insurance system by analyzing the parameters in the moderate model, so as to provide basis for decision of improving the endowment insurance system.This article has a comprehensive discussion on the replacement rate of basic old-age insurance from Economics and Demography perspective, using actuarial science, mathematical statistics, population estimation and other methods. The definition of the standard of moderate level of old-age insurance in this article is:meeting moderate demand level and supply level at the same time, thus establishing the model of moderate demand and supply level of the replacement rate. Among them, after clearly defining the "social overall plan and individual account", the model of moderate supply level is divided into the model of pay-as-you-go system and the model of full funding system, rather than generally establishing a supply model based on part accumulation. According to the moderate model, this paper takes H city in Hubei province for example, measuring out the moderate demand and supply level and real level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system for enterprise employees in urban areas in H city, Hubei province in 2008.The results shows that:(1)the moderate level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system under the "social overall plan and individual account" is determined by the payment rate, labor force growth rate, the actual age of retired workers, legal and emeritus age, investment rate in personal account, the annual rate of the salary increase and so on.(2) the moderate demand level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system for enterprise employees in urban areas in H city, Hubei province in 2008 is [65.36%,79.71%]; the moderate supply level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system is 75.18%; the real level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system is 98.42%.According to the standard of moderate level of old-age insurance, the real level of the average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system for enterprise employees in urban areas in H city, Hubei province in 2008 is not appropriate.According to the research conclusion, there are two ways to make the real level of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance system appropriate:firstly, reduce the real level of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance; secondly, increase the moderate level of average replacement rate. Despite that reducing the real level of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance is infeasible because of the difficulty of implementation, increasing the moderate level of average replacement rate by adjusting the parameters in the model is practical. Accordingly, this paper presents the measure to make the level of average replacement rate appropriate:expanding the coverage of basic old-age insurance system, taking the migrant workers into the system; reforming the current calculating method of the personal account; trying to achieve the goal that the investment rate is significantly higher than the salary rate; increasing the legal and emeritus age for female workers gradually; constructing a model of average replacement rate of basic old-age insurance which can adjust the pension automatically.