The Research On The Relationship Between China's Steel Industry Business Cycles And Macroeconomics Volatiblity

Iron and steel industry as a basic raw material industry in China, China's steel output ranks first in the world since 1996, China's steel production has been far ahead in the world, and now has broken more than 500 million tons annual production, while countries has been working develop some new chemical in recent years, but as heavy industry Iron and steel industry still has a pivotal role in the development of the national economy, its macroeconomic fluctuations reflect very sensitive period, can it have the status of vanguard of economic activity, the development trend will be directly affect the operation of the national economy, therefore the economy of the relationship between the steel industry volatility and macroeconomic volatility, the realization of the dynamic monitoring of the steel industry, governments and relevant departments of the steel industry's development of an accurate grasp of the situation, to achieve an effective prediction of its future development, to develop effective industrial policy and so on are of great practical significance.This article is a collection of January 2002 to August 2009 with iron and steel industry relevant macro-economic indices of monthly and the steel industry's own economic indicators, which covering the steel industry, production, sales, efficiency and cost and other aspects, the indicators will be collected for data processing to calculate the corresponding growth rate indicators for seasonal adjustment, and then use the time difference correlation analysis, k-L crest and trough of the amount of information law and law on the target group classification screening, were established The first iron and steel industry, consistent and lagging indicators, and finally use China economic monitoring system to construct the steel industry composite index to reflect the business cycles of the steel industry, This index can change in the steel industry, fluctuations in the economy given the appropriate signal. The use of composite index method, This article is also constructed the cyclical index to reflect macroeconomic volatility, and comparative analysis of the relationships of iron and steel industry's business cycles and macroeconomic volatility,and its delay to the relevant departments for the steel industry puts forward suggestions.Full-text is divided into seven chapters, Chapter 1 for the introduction, introduces the thesis of meaning and purpose and related research in international and domestic injury status, clear the contents of this paper and introduces ideas and methods of research and innovation of this paper; Chapter 2 is mainly theoretical introduction, the main evidence used for this method-the basic principle of the economy index and the index of construction steps; Chapter 3 from the perspective of many in China since 1995, fluctuations in the steel industry characteristics, and analyzes the reasons for their volatility; Chapter 4 Chapter 5 is the main part of the paper, including Chapter 4 on the treatment and classification of the data series was constructed to reflect fluctuations in the economy of China's steel industry, the coincident composite index, and analyze the characteristics of the steel industry, fluctuations in the economy, on this basis, the paper in Chapter 5 in the same way he built the coincident composite index of macroeconomic control of the Chinese steel industry and the time difference between macroeconomic volatility, and then come to this conclusion; Chapter 6 for the steel industry by the empirical analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations on the relevant state departments to make some positive policy recommendations; In Chapter 7, for the papers encountered in the writing process the difficulties and the target selected cases, the shortcomings described in this paper, and paper to study the issue further.