Study On Individual Housing Loans Credit Risk Assessment Of A Certain Commercial Bank In Xi'an Market

Default risk is the loss of bank that borrower can't repay the interest and capital of mortgage. Since the 80s of 20th century, China's personal housing mortgage loans have developed from scratch, and achieved rapid development, thus become the absolute factor as a driving force for the growth of personal consumption loans. However, while the personal housing loan business got brilliant achievements, it also began to face serious potential risks. As the personal housing loan market becomes more mature, have shown continuous exposure to credit risk, with the rate of non-performing personal housing mortgage loans started to rise. Thus it has important practical significance for China's commercial bank preventing financial risks with strengthening research on credit risk of personal housing loans, credit risk assessment in personal housing loans scientifically and reasonably.This paper is based on this perspective, begins with a summary of research of domestic and foreign scholars on the individual housing loans credit risk and risk assessment, select the personal housing loan client of a certain commercial bank as the research object, and further ground in customer's credit risk profile who buy a house mortgage in Xi'an. Of course, this article focuses more on risk assessment studies. First of all, after a exhaustive elaboration on individual housing loan development in China, as well as the risk exposure, this paper contrasted those with other countries or regions where the risk assessment of personal housing loans development has matured, thus provide some ideas for empirical part of the study in this paper. Secondly, analysis development status of individual housing loans in this commercial bank and credit risk in Xi'an market, thereby drawing on the basis of relevant research at home and abroad, combined with the individual housing loans client information in A certain commercial bank, and built assessment index system for individual housing loans credit risk. Finally, select the individual housing loans relevant customer data of this commercial bank in recent years as a sample, built individual housing loans credit risk assessment model by logistic regression, eventually establishment credit evaluation system of individual housing loans customer. After inputting a new borrower-related indicator into data model, the banks can predict the default probability, and thus according with credit scores to decide whether loans and issuance of credits.In this paper, we conducted a study on individual housing loans credit risk evaluation of a certain commercial bank in Xi'an market, which, to a certain extent, different from the past credit risk assessment leading by experience, and replace them with credit risk assessment leading by quantitative model-driven, supplemented by experience, which have some theoretical guidance and practical significance for this commercial bank in the aspect of credit risk assessment of individual housing loans, while also can be used for reference for other commercial banks.