An Empirical Study Of Selectivity And Market Timing Ability Of Chinese Funds

The first security investment fund was established in England in 1868. From then on, the world's security investment funds, not only their number and assets but also their kinds and forms of organization, have developed a lot during more than a hundred and thirty years. Acting as the institutional investors,the investment funds are getting more and more important with the development of the security market of China.It is not only a theoretical problem but also a practical concern. When people make investment decision,they will consider return and risk of the fund.The securities-selectivity ability and market-timing ability of fund managers is the source of execss return of funds.The article tries to measure the ability of our fund and give some advices for the investor.The paper first reviews and summarizes theories and methods in evaluating securities selection and market timing ability systematically. At present,the open-end fund is popular with the individual investor and the organization investor.It becomes mainstream variety which the fund market is worthy of the name,simultaneously also day by day becomes the organization investor which is most important and most has the development potential in Chinese stock market.It also plays an important role in improving investor structure of the stock market.Based on this, attempting to evaluate securities selection and market timing ability of open-end fund in China from January 1,2007 to December 31,2008 through the international mature TM model and the CL model;summarizing the rule and the characteristic of the Chinese open-end fund'sinvestment management;discussing research technique and the model compatibility;andproviding the gradual conclusion and the suggestion for the further research. It draws the following conclusion:Open-end fund managers have certain securities selection ability and market timing ability, and have stronger prediction function to the whole makret.