China's Open-end Securities Investment Fund Performance And Stock Selection And Timing Capability Study

From the year 2014 to 2017,China's A-share market appeared big rises and falls.Because of therapid switching from bull market to bearmarket,some investors have lost confidence in the current A-share market.In the first half of 2017,the A-share market kept being weak and vibrating,more and more investors focused on the fund market.A complete fund performance evaluation system can effectively supervise and constrain fund managers.It is also an invisible aid to fund managers and an important reference for investors.It can also guide market investors more effectively and practical.Therefore,it is of great significance to evaluatefund performance and fund managers' ability to choose timing of the stock market.This paper selects the top 12 fund companies in the market,and selects two open funds with long-term management and large-scale management from each company for empirical research.First,calculate a number of traditional performance evaluation indicators and observe their performance.Then use the improved Fama-French three-factor model to study,and observe whether there is consistency with the previous performance evaluation indicators.Then use the classic T-M,H-M model to verify whether the fund manager has professional management capabilities.As a result,it is found that the performance of funds in different stages has a strong regularity.Most funds perform well in the shock period and the rising period.Most of them can obtain yields that exceed market benchmark portfolios,and most fund managers can play a more prominent choice.Stock ability;On the other hand,it can be seen that during the period of stock market decline,compared with other stages,the performance of the fund has dropped drastically,and the stock picking ability has also dropped significantly,and it has no timing ability.The empirical results show that the index system used in the paper is highly consistent,and the models and methods show the same pattern,which shows that the basic model method is reliable.The possible innovation of this paper is mainly to use the improved Fama-French three-factor model to supplement the performance evaluation system,and to provide meaningful reference results for the current fund market operations.The review period is longer and the phase division is smaller.