An Empirical Study Of Iraq's Export Function

The thesis aims to establish an export function on Iraq's export trade and provide some political suggestions to economic reconstruction of Iraq. In my study, I try to find out the relationship between the influencing factors and the Iraq's export trade. The study is limited to the internal and external factors which affect Iraq's export trade. An initial judgment will be made to identify the major factors. The paper is focus on the relationship between Iraq's export and these key factors and tries to establish some models to simulate them. Some data tests like unit root test and Johansen Cointegration test should be done to determine a relative appropriate model which can reflect the relationship correctly. Vector Autoregressive Model can be used to settle some autoregressive problem in models. After that, I plan to use the determined model to analyze and simulate the relationship between the export performance of Iraq and its influencing factors. The fitting result of determined model will decide the prediction results which will be utilized to explain the development trend of Iraq's export. At last I hope the suggestions derived from the study can give some assistance to Iraq's economic reconstruction.