Techno-economic Evaluation Of Near-zero Emissions Coal-based Power Station In China

The techno-economic evaluation is the significant research content of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in R&D study. In this work, an economic forecast and evaluation methods for the near-zero emissions coal-based power station is built by improving the performance-cost model for the main units, which is suitable for the national conditions of China. Based on the same benchmark, the techno-economic coMParation of supercritical (ultra supercritical) power station and IGCC power station with different gasification technology are made. Moreover, some policy proposals are given for the development of the near-zero emissions coal-based power station in China.First of all, the international existing research methods and system are summarized. Then, according to the national conditions of China, the cost model of the main units of IGCC and the CO2 capture facilities is built.Considering international IGCC power station economic evaluation methods and China feasibility study methods, the total capital requirements budget method of China's IGCC power station is built. According to the references and practical engineering data, the referenced values of economic assumptions are confirmed. An IGCC economic evaluation software platform that fits the national conditions of China is built which takes the technical performance parameters as its input parameter.By using the platform, the techno-economic evaluations are made to the technology programs of China's IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. The results indicates that the average investment of greenfield 400MWe IGCC power station in China is about 7582 Yuan/kW, the average COE is about 0.43 Yuan/kWh and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.51 Yuan/kWh. If 90% CO2 is captured in IGCC power station, the investment will increase to 10834 Yuan/kW (43% increase), while the COE will increase to 0.53 Yuan/kWh (23% increase) and the Break-even electricity price including tax is about 0.65 Yuan/kWh (27% increase). If capture 90% CO2 in PC power station, the investment will increase from 4235 Yuan/kW to 7867 Yuan/kW (86% increase), while the COE will increase from 0.25 Yuan/kWh to 0.47 Yuan/kWh (90% increase). Sensitivity analysis is made about the main uncertainty factors in the current and technological progress scenarios. The influence of some uncertainty factors to the economical efficiency has been studied, for example, the annual operating hours, coal price, total investment, and the specific investment, installed capability, power supply efficiency and available rate. The policy mix is studied which prompt the development of IGCC in China. The results indicate that, if the policies mix including 20 years interest-free loan, income tax rate of 15%, value added tax rate of 9.4% below and coal price of 500 Yuan/t have been supplied to an IGCC power station, the Break-even electricity price including tax is decreased to 0.34 Yuan/kWh. If the technical improvements cause a 30% decrease to the investment, a 48% increase to the power supply efficiency, power supply increase to 600WM and the annual operating hours increase to 6500h, the Break-even electricity price including tax will be decrease to 0.41 Yuan/kWh, means a 21% decrease to the nowadays.In this wok, a scenario analysis about different CO2 treatment methods and the carbon emission reduction policy have been made, and then the critical point and the specific technology selection are confirmed. Currently, the pulverized coal power station will be more competitive with CO2 sale and CDM contract. However, the IGCC power station will be more competitive with a carbon tax policy. For example, when the investment of IGCC decrease 30% and the carbon tax rate is higher than 249 Yuan/tCO2, the COE of an IGCC power station with CO2 capture will be not higher than a IGCC power station without CO2 capture, a PC power station, or a PC power station with CO2 capture.In the current and technological progress scenarios, this thesis studies the sensitivity factors and policies mix to comfirm how they could affect the economic performance of the IGCC and near-zero emissions coal-based power stations. This has important value for China to formulate policy and develop roadmap of near-zero emissions coal-based power stations.