The Research About Financial Risk Of Enterprise Groups Based On Probit Model

Under the market economy term, the Group Enterprise has become the corpus of the market competition. The risk which it faces, particularly the financial risk, is a bigness challenge to the Group Enterprise. Therefore, enhance the management of the financial risk, have become a very important work of the modern Group Enterprise.The study background of this paper is the present financial risk condition and the actual need of financial risk about Our Country's Group Enterprise. The research object of this paper is what the factor of the happening of financial risk is. The main purpose of this study are to improve business operators and managers of financial risk in building awareness and enterprise groups should be concerned about what indicators of financial risk.This paper uses empirical research methods, through the establishment of Probit model for the study of listed companies come to affect the causes of the Group's financial risk factors. Shareholders equity ratio is used to measure the stockholders invest capital in the proportion of total capital. It is the most important financial indicators in the Group's financial risk. If the shareholders to-equity ratio is greater and the debt ratio is smaller, the company's financial risk is also smaller. In China, the debt (especially long-term liabilities) for the Enterprise Group is a heavy burden. The burden of debt will lead to more frequent Enterprise Group's borrowings and debt, thus increasing the financial risk of financing difficulties and eventually plunged into a vicious circle. Therefore, the enterprise groups in the prevention of financial risks should be in the size of corporate debt financing, including financing, debt maturity structure and capital structure, given sufficient attention.The paper is divided into five chapters:ChapterⅠIntroduction, which mainly describes the background of this research to study the meaning, purpose, method, research state and the structural arrangements of this article.ChapterⅡEnterprise Group theoretical basis of financial risks, which are mainly about the concept of enterprise groups, characteristics, the concept of risk, financial risk and financial characteristics of the concept of early warning knowledge. This chapter is the theoretical basis for this paper.ChapterⅢis the choice of the sample and indicators. This paper mainly describes what kind of samples of companies to selected and how to select indicators.ChapterⅣis about the establishment of model and empirical analysis. It mainly described through the establishment of Probit models and empirical analysis, obtained the causes of financial risk groups in this chapter.ChapterⅤconclusions, it is about the Conclusions of the full text and future prospects and recommendations.