Study On The Evolution And Capacity Forecast Of Inbound Tourists Flow In Gansu Province

Inbound tourists flow is an very important part in inbound tourism industry.It is a main object in inbound rourism research.So it is a fundamental job to hold the inbound tourists industry tempo-spatial evolution characters and driving factors correctly,which is the key to guaranteeing regional inbound tourism industry's survival and sustainable,healthy development.Having developed over 20 years,the inbound tourism of Gansu province grows out of nothing ,from infancy to maturity.Both the person-time of the touristss and the foreign exchange incomes have gained enormous developemt.However,compared with other provinces,the current internationalization of Gansu province's inbound tourism is quite low.Thus the study on inbound toutist flow has an important significance to Gansu province 's inbound tourism industry.What the thesis researches into is the inbound tourists flow of Gansu province. According to "Chinese Traveling Statistics Yearbook","Inbound Touristss Sample Investigation Material"and"Gansu Statistics Yearbook"as well as other data materials,from temporal and spatial two different dimensions,generalized analysis Gansu Province inbound tourists flow evolution characteristic by qualitative and quantitative methods,Summarys the factors which have affected Gansu province's inbound tourists flow in tempo-spatial varieties. And use statistical analysis software establish the different type inbound touristss capacity forecast mode in future certain time. At the same time, makes the forecast of Gansu inbound touristss capacity's trend of development. Finally proposed some countermeasures to Gansu inbound tourism industry's development in the above research's foundation.This thesis is composed of 7 parts.The first part introduces some background konwledge,including the research significance and goal, research summary, research contents and methods.The second part is about Gansu province's inbound tourists flow evolution and source of touristss structure composition analysis. according to 1979-2007 history statistical data of Gansu province's inbound tourists flow capacity divide this into 6 different evolution cycles. And gives the analysis explanation to the inbound tourists flow's growth. Next uses the geography concentration index analyses the Gansu province's source of inbound tourists markets structure and the composition. The third part is Gansu province's inbound tourists flow characteristic analysis. This part first summaries the overall characteristic of Gansu province's inbound tourists flow evolves. Then summaries various areas inbound tourists flow evolution characters in data analysis's foundation. Once more.Summaries the inbound tourists flow through the qualitative analysis in the Gansu domestic distributed characteristic.and adopts the Gini's coefficient quantitative analysis inbound tourists flow regional distribution not the balanced degree. Finally ,from inbound tourists average per person day expense, average idle days, behavior preferences, degree of satisfaction 4 aspects analysis to the inbound tourists's behavior characteristic in Gansu domestic.The fourth part is Gansu province's inbound tourists flow evolution influencing factor analysis. In generalized analysis foundation determines major effect events, Gansu province socio-economic development level, the level of Gansu province relates the outward, service level for Foreign tourists, Traveling infrastructure level, traveling resources quality, position traffic conditions, inbound tourists in china's consumption level, inbound tourists comes china's travel level as influencing factors,use the principal components analysis method carries on the analysis appraisal. Summarizes the variable types of affecting Gansu inbound touristss'capacity growth level .Then calculates the different type variable the synthesis score. Bases on this, makes the correlation analysis explanation to the influencing factors.The 5th part is Gansu Province's inbound tourists flow capacity forecast. Makes the short term forecast through setupping time serial regression forecast model and the multi-dimensional linear return forecast model,and carries on the comparative analysis. Further gives the analysis explanation to the article fourth part of definite 9 influence factors to the entry passenger capacity's influence in multi-dimensional linear regression model analysis.The 6th part, enhances the Gansu province's inbound tourists flow scale and the inbound traveling industry benefit countermeasures and suggestions. In put forward some feasible proposal to the inbound tourists flow tempo-spatial evolution characteristic and agent analysis's foundation.The 7th part is summarizes. Carrys on the summary and the summary in the first 6 parts of analysis's foundation to the full text viewpoint, and proposed in the thesis research process exists insufficiency as well as improvement direction. This article through the analysis , inbound tourists flow of Gansu province in the tempo-spatial evolution mainly show the following characters:(1)At present ,Gansu province's inbound tourists flow entered the new round top digit high speed rise period, Gansu province's inbound tourists flow has welcomed the far step in the process and once again meets the new historical development opportunity.(2)Through 1998-2007 year Gansu province's inbound tourists flow geography concentration index can draw a conclusion that Gansu Province in the recent 10 years inbound touristss market mechanism to be quite scattered in the regional distribution, which are advantageous to the inbound source of touristss market development stability.(3)1998-2007 Gansu Province's inbound touristss capacity region difference Gini's coefficient has been high, shows that Gansu province's inbound tourists flow distribution uneven phenomenon long-standing.(4)1998-2007 year Gansu entry tourists consumption level is somewhat low, is only 147.64 US dollars/person of days, is really big with the same time nation average level disparity. (5)The inbound touristss are short in Gansu domestic average idle days. (6)Gansu province's inbound touristss are satisfied with the tourism service quality and the servicing facility overall appraisal, but not satisfied with condition to the tour guide serves and scenic area (spot) restroom for a long time.At the same time,the impact of changes in Gansu province's inbound tourists flow driving factors analysis indicates that affects social economy factors which are basic requirement factors for Gansu province's inbound tourists flow grows, although had the change for the better in the recent years, but the partial factor's change and the inbound capacity change linear relationship was not obvious, some factors and the inbound tourists capacity's change assumed the inverse correlation.