Study On Relationship Between Power Demand And Economic Growth In Shandong Province

More and more people are paying close attention to the development of Power Demand with the sustainable and rapid economic growth in Shandong province.At present, there is much research on the relationship between power industry and economic development, but there is less on power demands in Shandong province and economic development, especially on the long-term relationship between power demands in Shandong province and macro economy development. We take theory of co-integration and grey relativity analysis to make a systematic research on the long-run equilibrium relationship between power demands in Shandong province and macro economy development. At first, we analyze the development status and problems of power demands in Shandong province and macro economy development, and some prospect were put forward. There is a focus on power demands in Shandong province and economic development from two aspects as follows.1. We make a systematic research on power industry growth and macro-economic development by theory of co-integration, granger causality analysis and error correction model. According to the research by theory of co-integration, we can see that power demands have a long-term and steady relationship with Shandong economic growth. By granger causality analysis, it is that the development of power industry can advance the rapid and steady development of Shandong economy. In other words, power industry development is advanced, that is, the crowding-in effects of economic development to power demands is not obvious for the moment. It can also be showed that the development mode of Shandong economy is still mono-directional style of economic increase on power industry. By error correction model, it proves the creditability.2. We make a systematic analysis on the relationship between Shandong electricity consumption and its industrial structure by grey relativity analysis. Based on the electricity consumption data among 1995 to 2007 and improved grey relativity model, we compute degree of association among electricity consumption both urban and rural residents, the primary industry, the secondary industry and the tertiary-industry.The results show that the secondary industry influences most in Shandong electricity consumption, consumption both total urban and rural residents the second, the tertiary-industry the third, and the primary industry the last. In order to analyze the trends, we build the GM(1,1)model by the data among 2003 to 2007. Then we forecast and make relations analysis on electricity consumption. The results of relations analysis indicate the trends of Shandong electricity consumption and the industrial relevancy of its factors change. The secondary industry still influences most, but the second is the tertiary-industry, consumption both total urban and rural residents the third. It shows that the tertiary-industry is playing more and more important role in electricity consumption.According to the empirical analysis and modeling above, we can conclude two results as follows.1. There is a long-term co-integration relationship between Shandong electricity consumption and economic development. Not only can electricity consumption go beyond the practical limit, but it can promote the economic development.2. The development of the secondary industry influences the most in Shandong electricity consumption. So it will be strengthened in the future five years. The tertiary-industry will play more and more important role in the future. Five years and it will be the second factor influencing electricity consumption.