Study On Industrial Structure And Its Impact On Economic Growth In Shandong Province

In the past 30 years, our country’s economic growth is mainly driven by demand factors, such as investment, consumption and export. However, this kind of economic growth mode could not adapt to the development of current economy. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, Jinping Xi put forward the view of "supply side reform", which aims to strengthen the supply side of structural reforms, improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, and enhance the momentum of sustained economic growth. The core idea is to further adjust and optimize the industrial structure, to improve the production efficiency, to find a new supply, to stimulate demand, to achieve sustainable economic growth.Based on the study of industrial structure, this paper studied the influence of industrial structure change on economic growth in Shandong province, and this paper is carried out in accordance with the following steps. Firstly, basing on the summary analysis of previous research, this paper analyzed the development state of industrial structure in Shandong Province from the output value structure, employment structure, comparative labor productivity, the internal structure of industry and other aspects. Then studied the leading industry and its impact on economic growth in Shandong province using input and output method. Secondly, by the method of SSA, we studied the contribution of industrial structure on economic growth in 17 cities of Shandong province, to find out the reason of the difference of economic growth from the three industry’s point of view. Finally, we established the panel data model to analyze the effect of industrial structure change on economic growth effect, using 2000-2014 panel data of Shandong Province.Through the research of this paper, we got the following conclusions:Firstly, the leading industry of Shandong Province at the present stage is Chemical products, metal smelting and rolling processing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electricity and heat production and supply industry, transportation, storage and postal industry and some manufacturing industries, such as general equipment, communication equipment, computer and other electronic equipment. Secondly, it is a common problem that weakness of industrial structure exists universally in most areas of Shandong Province in the process of economic growth. Only cities such as Jinan, Qingdao, Rizhao, Linyi have certain advantages in terms of industrial structure, and their industrial structure factor has obvious promoting effects on regional economic growth. Thirdly, through panel data model analysis, we find that when the proportion of the primary and secondary industry increased by 1%, the GDP will decrease 2.670 and 0.070 percent, however, the 1% increase of the proportion of the tertiary industry will cause the increase of GDP by 2.608%. And the influences of the three industry proportion on the elasticity of labor output are respectively 0.320,0.777,0.563. The influences of the three industry proportion on the impact of the elasticity of capital output are respectively-0.083,0.389,0.489.