A Research On The Real Estate Business Cycle Of Chengdu

The real estate is a pillar industry in the national economy. It plays an important role in Chinese economy. Any big rise-and-down or ill-health development of the real estate market will cause enormous economic damages to the society. Therefore it is very important to analyze the state of a city's real estate.Through the combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis ,this paper analyzes the business cycle of Chengdu's real estate market,sets up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market business cycle system. This system can be used to objectively analyze the running orbit of the real estate. The situation and developing trend of the real estate market could be assessed and judged correctly in the system, too. At first,the paper introduces the theories and methods about business cycle, then using Chengdu's statistical data of 1995-2008, the paper analyzes the business cycle of the city's real estate.Applying traditional analysis method of time series, the paper eliminates the secular trend, seasonal fluctuation, irregular variation from original time series.Therefore, the cyclical movement can be gained. After this, the paper computes the increasing ratio of circular compare, then uses the new time series to compute the diffusion index. In the analysis of business cycle, all indicators should be sorted to three kinds, they are:leading indicator, coincident indicator and lagging indicator.Then the three kinds diffusion index can be computed singly. In the paper ,the author uses" time difference correlation analysis" to sort the indicators.The result of coincident indicator shows that Chengdu's real estate experienced obvious business cycles. From1995 to 2008, it experienced the cycle course of "boom-wither-boom". And from 2005, Chengdu's real estate was in the state of prosperity, but the boom index fell .According to the leading indicator, we can predict that Chengdu's real estate may continue the state of prosperity in short time.In the end, the city's business cycle is compared with the whole country's business cycle.-The result shows that the two fluctuations are very similar. Additionally, the paper analyzes the reason of the business cycle: it was caused by the country's real estate policies.The analysis of business cycle is the key part of a real estate early-warning system, but until now, Chengdu doesn't build the early-warning system. The innovation of the paper is that it uses diffusion index to analyze the real estate of Chengdu, and sets up a preliminary scientific and feasible real estate market business cycle system. The result can help the government make decisions, and the research can provide a possible, feasible project to the early-warning of real estate market.