Study On North China's Natural Gas Market And LEAP Model Application

North China is one of the important economic developed areas in our country. With rapid development of five coastal provinces or municipality: Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei in this area, the demands on natural gas is increasing. To realise and master North China Natural gas market, which is benefit to Natural gas enterprise for making future decisions based on local conditions.This thesis analyses and studies North China's natural gas market. Firstly, the thesis analyses North China energy consumption and supply condition is analysed: North China area is lack of natural gas resource but rich in the resource of coal and petroleum, however, for Beijing consumption feature on the environmental protection aspect make the demand of natural gas increasing rapidly, Natural gas supply is mainly rely on external input currently, the gas resource is mainly from Changqing. Secondly, the thesis focus on the analysis of North China's natural gas market, North China Natural gas user market mainly divided into the aspects of industry, civil, heating, public service, but the consumption structure is not reasonable, heating demands occupy the most, so there is a great disparity between winter and summer for natural gas consumption. These factors mentioned restrict the benign development of North China Natural gas market. Thirdly, under Baseline scenario hypothesis, LEAP Model is used to analyse the natural gas market. Based Beijing energy structure and adjustment basic scheme, Beijing Natural gas market development baseline scenario is constructed, by using LEAP Model to establish the database and make optimize to forcast and analyse Beijing's future natural gas consumption market, then get the information of Beijing's future primary energy structure, energy supply and production, final energy consumption, etc. Lastly, in accordance with the problem, opportunity and challenge ,some countermeasures are advanced.