Research Of Financial Early-Warning Model Of Listed Company In China

With the gradual advancement of economic integration and the development of capital market in China, the economic environment is more and more uncertain and complicated. Special treatment to listed companies were gradual increased, the managers of listed companies, creditors,investors and auditors,etc,to appraise financial situations, operation of enterprise have important meaning to predict in time. With the foreign and domestic related great study advanced deeply, the pure traditional financial indexes early-warning financial crisis model couldn't satisfy the gradually complexity of company management. In this paper, I combined the financial indexes and non-financial indexes to build the early-warning financial crisis model.In this paper, we choose 80 ST companies and non-ST companies as samples in IT industries from 2004 to 2007. Based on formers research, we pick 22 financial indexes and 8 non-financial indexes to establish a new index system. Then we make the descriptive test and correlated analysis for the indexes'characteristic by SPSS software, Finally,we choose the significant indexes in to the model, and build 3 financial crisis prediction Logistic model. Through using test samples, the model can forecast the financial crisis well, and the total predictions are 100%, 86.7% and 86.7%.At last, according to the defaults existed in early-warning financial crisis model in our country, the paper gives some suggestions with the model design and applied environment aspects, in order to be helpful for the development of the early-warning financial crisis research.