The Study Of Chinese Inflationary Pressure's Calculation And Precautionary Measures

Through the current price of China ,the situation illustrate the existence of domestic inflationary pressures in our country.Then on the introduction of theoretical knowledge of the inflationary pressures,at laying a theoretical knowledge of the premise,it arise from the calculation methods about the inflationary pressures.Through accessing to journals and magazines,there are two major calculation methods are prevalent in our domestic computing model,one is based on the "output-price" Phillips curve,the two is based on the measured velocity of money circulation method.but the foreigners commonly used P-Star model also does not evoke the attention of scholars in China,so Firstly,making the briefly contrast between the P-Star modle and the commonly used two modles,then conclude the P-Star modle of factors to be considered comprehensive than other two.And the application of the revised P-Star model of our empirical analysis.The specific research framework are as follows:Writing the preamble of the main topics of the background and significance, and through the reality of the situation existing in China comes to qualitative existence of inflationary pressures, the thesis summarizes the research methods and structure, as well as research steps. First of all, inflationary pressures are the connotations of Writing and its characteristics, discussed the factors that caused inflation pressures; and through the four aspects explained the performance of the inflation stress.such as the consumer price index, producer price index, investment goods price index and the GDP deflator.Second, inflationary pressures are measured and compared the description of methods, and now there are two commonly used estimation methods, one based on the Phillips curve "output-price" Phillips curve, which is based on actual output and potential output gap with the relationship between price changes;The Two is based on the measured velocity of money circulation method, the use of monetary velocity and its trend value of the offset between the measured rate. Prevalence of the use of foreign but domestic rare attempt at a method is P-Star model, it is through currency trading equation theory of the price level, so that with the long-run equilibrium price level compared to describe the size of inflationary pressures . At the three measurement methods described briefly after the comparative analysis. P-Star model which derivs factors to be considered a more comprehensive, is a relatively good measurement model.Then the P-Star model is revised and used to empirical analysis of China ,which is the difficulties of the thesis.Although P-Star model compared to the other two has some advantages,the considerations of its own is not very good,just taking demand-side effects on price into account,but not supply-side effects.So in this thesis , wants to innovate at this point.The difficulties is set out in the regression equation to consider many factors,after a unit root test,cointegration test. Finally, the regression equation to estimate, and then test. Finally the results for analysis. Because by 2008 the impact of sub-loan crisis, the Chinese economy must decline, by increasing the relevant data in 2008,further analysis of the results and explain the causes. Finally,according to previous analysis,at this stage which the economic slowdown and prices rising,suggesting the corresponding policies.