Phillips Curve Of Guangdong Province: Theory, Model, And Empirical Study

Phillips curve is an important curve that describes the relationship between inflation and unemployment rate. From its appearance on, many domestic and foreign economists , including some Nobel prize winners , have focused on it and done lots of researches on it , and got lots of useful conclusions about it. However, whether this curve exist .whether it's stable and the form of this curve is the focus of debates between economists, which many economists don't reach an agreement.This paper will conclude the economists' researches about Phillips curve ,points out their weakness and the defects of unemployment rate in China. And then this paper will use the advancing econometric methods such as HP filter, unit root test, and panel data to make the output-gap Phillips curve of Guangdong province, and give some advice on the policies of Guangdong province. The conclusion is that the output-gap Phillips curve of Guangdong province exist, the first industry and the third industry of Guangdong province don't have the output-gap Phillips curve while the second industry do, FDI and export and import have the positive impact on the inflation of Guangdong province.The innovation of this paper is that it proves that the output-gap Phillips curve of Guangdong province exist and get its form for the first time , also make the estimation of the output-gap Phillips curve of Guangdong province on the industry level.