Theories Of Banking System Fragility And Measure Methods

Fragile banking system, which is vulnerable to external shocks, will cause banking crisis, lead to economic recession, increase unemployment and make macroeconomic policies inefficient. Therefore, researching the banking fragility, analyzing the key factors of the banking system fragility, bringing forward the countermeasures of preventing and resolving the banking fragility is of great theoretical and practical meaning to improve the efficiency of the allocation of banks' funds, to fully exploit finance's active function in economy and to maintain the national economic development stable and sustainableTheoretically, this thesis begins with reviewing the existing theories and research methods about banking system fragility, then clarifies the concepts of banking system, the fragility of the banking system, the fragility of the banking system and banking risks, the fragility of the banking system and banking crisis, describes the mechanism of banking system fragility from banks, enterprises, private and government's point of view ,finally evaluates the negative externalities brought about by banking system fragility through comparing different countries.Empirically, historical event method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, Probit model, Logit model and factor analysis will be used to measure the fragility of banking systemAt last, policy recommendations will be provided in 3 areas, banks, banks operation environment and regulatory system basing on the result of theoretical and empirical analysis.