The Institutional Analysis And Empirical Research Of China's Banking Fragility

The fragility of the state owned banks in the transitional period is an issue in hot discussion. The problem is more striking to China, a developing country in the process of institutional transition. Till now, there is no systematic and comprehensive study of such problems as what's the extent of the state owned banks' fragility, what's the root of the fragility, and how to avoid and ease the fragility. So, the study on the state owned banking fragility is of great theoretical and practical importance. Under this background, this dissertation takes banking fragility, the new but rigorous subject, as the research focus and tries to form a frame of definition, theory, mechanism and policy system. The purpose is to provide useful theory support and exercisable proposals.Firstly, this paper reviews the development of banking fragility theory, including the the connotation of banking fragility, relationship between banking fragility,banking risk and banking crisis. Then, this paper takes theoretical analysis of banking fragility and its impact on finance system. Immediately after that, from the micro main, the macroeconomic environment and the financial system structure changing this three aspects to start on banking fragility's internal, external and dynamic mechanism of formation.Then, Expositions on performance, measure and empirical analysis of causes of China's banking fragility, including bad loans, capital strength, profitability and liquidity risk analysis and evaluation of the situation. This part demonstrates our banking fragility using Logit model with 22-year data from 1989-2006. On this basis, from the building, the establishment of early warning indicator system, the threshold set, data processing and display signals to the five aspects of China's banking fragility early-warning mechanisms, and from the corporate governance structure, mode of development , integrated operations, capital market system, system construction and financial monitoring mechanisms this six aspects to related resolved countermeasures. Finally, summarize the main research work and conclusions. This paper presents Countermeasures of China's banking fragility is basiced on theory as a guide, comprehensive analysis of China's banking fragility, reached and to a certain extent oriented and procedural. has some againstly and operability.This paper persisting applying theory to reality, unifying methods of qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis,standard analysis with diagnosis analysis. Meanwhile,this paper uses Logit Econometric Model Research Methods. Logit regression model used in this paper on China's banking system 1989-2006, the data for the vulnerability analysis, empirical results show that the impact of China's fragile banking system is not all of the factors on the market of the risk level, but more important is to Since the system level. The main research and innovation mainly two things: First, will be internal and external causes and dynamics, for integration into the static one; dynamic mechanism will be incorporated into the banking system fragility of the growth in the static analysis based on the combination of changes in the financial system explore the dynamic formation mechanism. Second, the amount of data collected in 2006 and updated to a non-dimensional data processing and correlation analysis, which makes the results more accurate empirical In addition, taking into account the special situation of China's financial system and the impact of changes in the selection of indicators joined the in the system of monitoring indicators, which makes analysis more comprehensive and convincing.