Study Of The Fluctuations On The Real Estate Based On The Fictitious Economic Point

Factually, the Real Estate is an important fictitious assets, it's a special assets which both has the characters of the real assets and the fictitious assets. But the fictitious character dose not exist at first , only when there are enough wealth in the social and people are willing to invest the Real Estate , the fictitious character can be appeared The. relative studies of the domestic scholars told us that the basic economic index can't explain the Real Estate price well in some large cities after 2002, it can mean that our country has come into a stage that the fictitious character can be appeared ,it's necessary for us to study the Real Estate price cycle from the fictitious perspective .On the another hand, the domestic scholar has set up the Real Estate theory frame on the base of the two kinds of characters of the Real Estate.This paper will take the city of Sanya as an example, and adopts the effective methods have been used in the fictitious capital market for many years to study the Real Estate price cycle in this city , including: using the Wave Theory to analyze the Real estate market data of Sanya (1988-2007) ,indicating that Sanya's real estate market has grown on to the fifth stage of the whole eight ones and at last , using the predication of the peak point and trough in this stage have been investigated using strange numerical theory .Using the Matlab and Welch method to study the life circle of Sanya real estate market , which suggests that Sanya's real estate market probably has three different life circles: 8-month short period life circle, 3 to 4 years middle term life circle and 10-year long term life circle. We introduce Moving average method to make further analysis, which produces the following result : season is an important factor to bring price changes but won't affect the whole trend of the market development life circle of Sanya's real estate market (about 3-4 years) is a key factor to affect the house price. Macro control regulations of the nation make changes to the market effectively. The inflation effects can't be eliminated because CREIS isn't considered in the annual price. Finally, OBV analysis is carried on the market data (1988-2007), which gives the following conclusion: In recent years (after 2005), OBV index experienced a sharp rise, but the volume didn't react correspondingly. This phenomenon suggested that it is speculation that affects Sanya's market. Insufficient volume will limit the rising house price. So, there is a great possibility for the house price to drop. OBV analysis on the monthly data produces similar conclusion.