Research Of Sale Forecasting Based On Supply Chain

The acceleration of global economic integration,the development of information technology,the increasingly fierce market competition and rapidly changing market demands bring Enterprises with more opportunities and challenges.While companies face the enormous business opportunities in the global market,they are also facing constant needs to shorten the delivery time and reduce costs,the increasing pressure of improving quality and service.All these factors force the enterprises to get the ability to make a scientific forecast on changing market needs and rapidly response to them.In the face of such situation,the traditional enterprise management strategy which has the characteristics of over-reliance on internal resources failed to cope with fierce market competition environment and the fast-changing market demand.This requires companies to use more external resources,strengthen the information sharing among the supply chain upstream & downstream businesses and forecast the demand more accurately.Against such a background,Research of the characters of sales forecasts based on supply chain,construction of collaborative sales forecasting and example of application has important theoretical value and practical significance.This paper takes the thesis of supply chain management,management information system and statistics as theoretical guidance.It refers the latest research results on sales forecasting all over the world and uses the combination of the norminal analysis and empirical analysis.The Paper takes the construction,validation,application of the co-forecast model as main line.Then the paper put forward the conditions and some assumptions on how to build a collaboratiove sales forecasting in a supply chain environment.On the reference of collaborative planning,forecasting and replenishment(CPFR) issued by VICS.with the Combination of time series analysis which is good at finding the seasonal aspects of the model and multiple regression analysis which is good at finding the relationship between dependent variable and independent ones(also called external variables),and then dynamically allocate the weight for each part of the final results in a joint model by the accuracy of son model.By taking the feedback mechanisms with the exception,the collaborative sales forecasting model is finanly formed.in the last part of the paper.Some data of Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited are collected to validate the model with the aid of SPSS and EXCEL softwares.The result of the model can be used to drive the whole supply chain.The study suggests that conducting collaborativesales forecasts in the supply chain environment and sharing of information will help improve the efficiency of supply chain,reduce the costs,rapidly response to market demand and improve customer satisfaction.Only all the members of the supply chain benefit from the practical implementation of the collaborative sales forecast,that will encourage them with greater enthusiasm into the practise of the supply chain of horizontal integration.the supply member enterprises take the advantegies of the entire supply chain,continuously consolidate and strengthen their market competitiveness.The study also finds that the accuracy of sales forecasts can not be separated from ERP,CRM,APS,and other information systems to support, The adjustment of the organizational structure of enterprises,business process re-engineering and supply chain partnership.