System Progress Simulation And Fund Risk Assessment About The New Rural Endowment Insurance

This article focuses on the sustainability of the new Rural Social Endowment Insurance, aiming to explore and evaluate the possible risk factors what probably existed during the policy process of the new Rural Social Endowment Insurance. At the macro level, the article focuses on policy simulating about the policy promoting, and the assessment of Central Financial payments stress is the focal point. At the micro level, the article takes the Personal Accounts risk management as the entry point, and takes the level of pension payments that the policy could provide as the assessment criteria, aiming to identificate and control the risk variables that affecting the level of pension benefits.Based on 2005 1% sample survey data and the Second National Agricultural Census data, using demographical and actuarial knowledge, the article calculates the life table of rural people and the prediction of the rural population in future. Based on the data, combining the policy framework that was given ,the article simulates the number of insured,percentage of policy cover and the Central Financial payments. Besides, based on the fund balance principle, the article discusses in detail about the risk variables associated the pension payments.In addition, the article forecasts the level of pension payments under multi-level and multi-parameter in key year during the policy promotion, in order to get the reasonable value of the risk variables. Moreover, the article discusses the implementation possibility of the risk variables.Based on the conclusions, policy recommendations can be giving about the new Rural Social Endowment Insurance, so as to ensure the policy promoted smoothly and sustainability. The conclusions are also important to economic stability and social development.