Empirical Research On The Factors Driving The Rising Of House Price In Chinese Cities

Since reform and opening up, especially since the implementation of the housing reform policies, our Chinese real estate market has been developed rapidly, and residential market has become the new hot spots of consumption and economic growth. However, in the back of buoyant market, Chinese residential market also exists serious problems, such as the prices of current house go up rapidly, and continue rising and so on. As a result, in recent years, the state has promulgated a series of policies to control it, but the policies have achieved little progress. So it is very important and urgent to use a quantitative and scientific analysis method to research what the main factors impact housing price fluctuations and how major factors influence on the prices of houses in order to use the research results to guide country's policies control and to guide residential market developing healthily.By analyzing formation mechanism of housing price, this dissertation sort out the various factors affecting housing prices directly and indirectly, then establish an econometric model to analysis the impact extent on housing price by each effect factor from the interaction relationship between the housing supply, housing demand and housing prices. The thesis also makes an empirical analysis of the residential market of whole country, Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin. We educe some important conclusions compared with the four area's residential market: Firstly, the lending rate has a lag to impact housing price, and it can't impact on house prices significantly in short-term. Secondly, the increase in proportion of urban population and the increase in cost of housing development are the most important factors which drive housing price increase of the whole country, Beijing and Tianjin. For example, in the whole country, the increase in the proportion of urban population is the most important factor, and the increase in housing cost is the secondary factor. In Tianjin, the increase in the proportion of urban population is the most important factor, too, and the increase in land cost is the less important factor. In Beijing, the increase in land cost is the primary factor, and the imbalance in the supply-demand structure is the secondary factor. Thirdly, there is a serious imbalance phenomenon on supply-demand structure in Shanghai, which causes the primary factor impacting on rising house prices. The study results also indicate that speculation phenomenon doesn't exist in the whole country widely. The speculative phenomenon is more serious in Tianjin and Shanghai, but it's comparatively small in Beijing. On the basis of this conclusion, we propose several policy recommendations to macroeconomic control rules of state and local government.