The Analysis On Optimal Allocation Of Plantation Resources In Jiangsu

Agricultural resource is a prerequisite and material base on which human being rely for being survival and developing. As a large agriculture country, natural agriculture resources are rich, but the quantity of per people having is lower greatly than world's average level. Thus how to use limited agricultural resource reasonably and effectively and optimize and distribute agricultural resources is an important problem which should be solved during our country's agriculture development. The agriculture is our country's national economy basis, and the crop farming is the agriculture basis. As an important agricultural production department, crop farming includes two major parts: the planting of grain crops and economic crops. Therefore, disposition of the plantation resources reasonably and the adjustment of plantation structure and production distribution are not only for crop farming's own construction and development, but also for the countryside's industrial structure adjustment and the location of production, urging overall development of grain crops and economic crops, and obtaining maximal output benefits.Allocation of resources is an eternal research topic of conversation, although many domestic scholars have already been in progress to optimizing agriculture allocation of resources. This article utilizes the systems dynamics model in the research, and has constructed the agricultural system resources optimization disposition systems dynamics model. Because of significant difference of economic development level in our country's different areas and complicated agricultural data materials, this article has chosen Jiangsu Province crop farming resources deployment and the optimization to regularly study.This research is divided into two levels to launch on. Firstly, this paper establishes the production unit resources optimal combination, resources deployment systems dynamics optimization model and optimum allocation of various resources among many production, and takes Jiangsu Province crop production as analysis object, mainly study grain crops (wheat, rough rice, corn, soybean) and economic crops (rape, cotton, peanut). Taking the agricultural resource optimization disposition model as the research breakthrough point, it uses the system dynamics model to make a empirical analysis on Jiangsu province crop farming area resource optimization by the related data during "the 8^th Five-Year Plan" ", "the 9^th Five-Year" and "the 10^th Five-Year Plan". It gets that during "the 8^th Five-Year Plan" period the grain crops have quite have quite obvious superiority to economic crops, and the grain crops' advantage to the economic crops' has been being weakened during "the 9^th Five-Year Plan", and the grain crop has continued maintaining the weak power to the economic crop but each other presented the shake overlapping pattern during " the 10^th Five-Year Plan ". Secondly, in order to analyse the reason of the trend, the paper decomposes the total output value by crop farming output value change contribution model. It discovers the total output value change caused by the price (namely various crops price change), unit area productivity (namely a unit of area's output change), structure (namely some one kind of the crops layout change between different area), cultivated area (namely be to cultivate general area change) and pattern of farming (namely change of each crops cultivated area). Make use of three Five-Year Plan agriculture data to examine the effect of five affecting as said above to gross output value. It is known that as a whole,unit output contribution is to be most important, the second important is crop farming internal structural adjustment, crop farming area structural adjustment is third important, but the price's effect basically presents the downward trend. Finally, it sums up the main conclusion which this article studies, and indicates the direction of later study.