The Research On Scale Moderation And Management Of The Foreign Exchange Reserve In Our Country

The abundant foreign exchange reserve conservation has favor in improving the precaution ability against to the financial risk in our country, enhancing the international and domestic confidence of our economy and currency, attracting the entrance of foreign investment and promoting the economy development. At the same time, the foreign exchange reserve possession can also have some related cost and price, and affect the state economy and financial security. Therefore, reasonable conservation of the foreign exchange reserve scale and its effective management have the vital significance.The paper first introduces the concept and the constitution of the international reserve which takes the foreign exchange reserve as its main constituent, then analyses the influence factors of foreign exchange reserve scale from supply and demand aspects in detail, obtains the definition of foreign exchange reserve moderate scale in China on the basis of the former. This paper evaluates main research achievements of foreign exchange reserve moderate scale from western scholars, including Regression Analysis Model and Cost and Income Analysis Model and so on. It also introduces the history and the present situation of foreign exchange reserve scale in China and analyzes the economic benefit of foreign exchange reserve scale. According to the reality in our country and the demand characteristic of foreign exchange reserve scale, combined with the evaluation methodology of foreign exchange reserve abroad, then it establishes the foreign exchange reserve moderate scale model in China, makes the empirical analysis of foreign exchange reserve moderate scale and it concluded that the foreign exchange reserve scale in our country is oversized. Finally, this paper provides the suggestion to construct the dynamic management objective system of the foreign exchange reserve in our country as well as dynamic management measures of foreign exchange reserve. They include the suggestion to control foreign exchange reserve scale, to maintain the balance of payments, and to relax the foreign exchange control, to enhance the economic efficiency and the operation benefit of foreign exchange reserve, to increase the transparency of the foreign exchange reserve management in our country, to establish the risk management system of foreign exchange reserve, to strengthen the cultivation of high quality and high level operational managers of the foreign exchange reserve and so on.