Research On Simulation Of The Price Of Commercial Residential House Of Nanjing By System Dynamics

The house market of china has experienced great changes since its cancellation of the welfare housing policy in 1998, with an overall increase in urban commercial residential house investment, sales, as well as the price of which in some cities, the accelerating speed amounts to 20 percent annually. The changes have received enough attention from the society. The government administrative department has issued a series of measure to control the upward price of urban commercial residential house and prevent the risk of it, but the market reaction has not been up to the reset target. And therefore it has pressed an urgent need for the establishment of a simulation model of the price of urban commercial residential house which helps to analyze house policies based on a comprehensive study of the relations between the influential factors of the price of commercial residential house.This paper uses system dynamics method for the research of the price of commercial residential house. Firstly, based on the research of the status quo of the commercial residential house market of Nanjing and the qualitatively analysis of the important influential factor of the price of commercial residential house from the aspects of price constitution, house demand, house supply, macro economy and policy, through the historical data of the commercial residential house market of Nanjing, the interrelations of these factors are simulated. Then establish the systematic dynamics model, and run the model by the software and tests the validity by comparing with the actual status. The following part predicts the future market of Nanjing, and according to the structure of the model and from the aspect of macro management, the paper selects several policy index, then carries on the simulation experiments with the adjustments of policy index. Lastly, according to the result of policy simulation experiments, this paper proposes macro suggestions about adjustments and controls, in the hope of offering references for holding the price of commercial residential house correctly and standardizing the urban market of commercial residential house.