| As the scale of Xi'an real estate market enlarges year by year and developing quality gradually exalted and the consume idea becomes mature, with the deep development of real estate market and canonical run of policy, Xi'an real estate industry strides forward from low-level model to the way which makes for consumption and sustaining development. Since 2005 year, the regional real estate market has appeared "the heat" phenomenon. Following the west development policy gradually implementation, Xi'an as west "bridgehead", there are hot signs of the market movement in Xi'an real estate market. There also appears the house to climb, the commodity apartment investment cost increased range enlarges and internal structure is not balanced and so on.System dynamics is used in this thesis to do research on the house real estate market. Firstly, by analyzing the inner structure and external influence factors of the market, the article establishes an emulation forecast model with System Dynamics theory; Confirm the initial value of variable and parameter according to the data of Xi'an from 2002 such as GDP, population, ground supply, ground price and house market; Then, as an example, simulates the developing condition of Xi'an commercial tenement market from 2002 to 2015 with vensim; Analyze the trend of xi'an real estate market by analyzing the result of predict; Adjust factors of model in order to confirm the effect; Last, concludes the developing status of Xi'an real estate market through analyzing the main export index, and expounds corresponding policy advice by policy simulation experiment.This thesis analyzes Xi'an house real estate and forecasts the developing trend by using System Dynamics. Through providing the policy advice, it has the reference value and practical significance to healthy development of the real estate market. |
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