The Stability Analysis Of The Risk Of The Real Estate Investment Based On Hopfield Neural Networks

The risk of real estate investment is the degree of the difference between the real income and the anticipation of real estate investment which caused by random factors. For the real estate investment has a long period,huge investment and influenced by many complicated factors, its risk is not only complicated, but also has a great fluctuation. So, the stability analysis of its risk is also taken an important place in the investment besides the magnitude analysis of risk. Under these conditions, comparing with the net present value based on capital asset pricing model which used very common in the traditional project estimate, the net present value based on economic value added give more comprehensive consideration and measurement to the cost and efficiency of the resources, and it fitted the demanding of modern company's management when it used to measure the risk of real estate investment.Based on the economic value added to measure the company's efficiency and income of the investment, use the fluctuation of the net present value of the adjusted economic value added to measure the stability of investment risk. Firstly compare the net present value based on capital asset pricing model of the real estate investment with the net present value based on economic added of real estate investment, and give a analysis to the difference and the relation between them.Secondly, get the income and risk of annual investment's effect on the whole project through analyze the mean and the variance of the net present value based on economic value added.Then introduced to the implement—Hopfield Neural Net—which used toanalyze the risk of investment. After simply introduction of its predomination and characteristics when used to analyze the risk of investment, systemic introduced its work principles and applicability. The analysis focus on the applicability which means the stability of the neural net. Then take three variables such as economic value added as examples to analyze the conditions which needed to get the neural net have the characters such as applicability and stability, and give a general analysis of its risk. At last analyze the Wuhan's real estate market by use the recent twelve years' data. After get the simulated orbit curves of differential equation through resolve and emulate the equations. the curves shows that the development of the first period is fast and sharp, but the present investment indicators such as economic value added are located in a abnormal high position. Although in a short time they will continue their ascend trend, the fluctuation is great,the stability is not good and the investment risk is not so well.In the end give a conclusion to this paper and an expectation to the continued work.