Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Mechanism Of Sino-Japanese Trade

During 1993 and 2006, Japan has always been China's largest trade partner, and China has been Japan's second largest. Japan has played an important role in development of China's export-oriented economy. Therefore, study on trade subjects such as trade influencing factors and their mechanism will no doubt have a positive impact on China and Japan's, or even the whole Asian bilateral economic communication and development.Sino-Japanese trade has transferred from the original era of "stronghold of exporting manufacturing", which is mainly based on the use of abundant and cheap labor force of China, to the era in which China is deemed as the aim of manufacturing base station.The paper begins with the review of the relevant scholar's literatures. First it has a thorough research and summary about trade theory, determinants influencing foreign trade, as well as their mechanism. On this basis, it takes a general synthesis analysis on the development and the present situation of Sino-Japanese trade. And then qualitative theoretical analysis is given to the influencing factors of trade from the international aspect, the domestic aspect and the uncertainty aspect.On basis of the theoretical analysis, the essay comes to the quantitative empirical analysis. This paper is devoted to a study of the kinds and impact intensity of determinants affecting Sino-Japanese trade. This study, adopting the extended gravity model and OLS regression method, is based on data collected in manufacturing industries that contribute to the largest proportion of Sino-Japanese trade from 1992 to 2006. According to the actual characteristics of the two trade partners, this empirical syudy has quantized some key determinants and has put them into the extended gravity model. The empirical analysis results show that the bilateral per capita income(per capita GDP)and the opening degree(ratio of dependence on foreign trade)have a great impact on Sino-Japanese trade, and sign of the coefficients keeps accordance with expectation. However, the bilateral exchange rate and the FDI have no so clear relations with Sino-Japanese trade. To all the phenomenon above, this paper gives some reasonable economic explanations.Finally, according to the empirical analysis results and the actual situation of Sino-Japanese trade ,this paper gives a scientific prediction to the future trade tendency, and raised some basic policy proposals for inducing higher and healthier trade on the macroscopic, intermediate and microcosmic levels.