| City is an important carrier in constructing socialist harmonious society. Only the city is harmonious, the urban and even the country will be harmonious . It is an important issue on development path chosen and strategic decision of a harmonious urban. Policy makers are also facing a major problem of how to realize rapid economic development and social stability, and also keep using recources rationally and protectiong ecological environment and finally reach the goal of society, economics, resource, environment hamony in Wuhan which is in the significant strategic period of Mid-China rising.This paper aimed to establish a scientific, reasonable harmony evaluation indicator system based on the successful experience of evaluation and prediction of the sustainable development and coordination, and conduct quantitative evaluation of social, economic, resource and environmental harmony in Wuhan city, and then forecast the trend of the harmonious development, finally put forward policy recommendations on building"a harmonious Wuhan".By contrast to the difference between the concept of harmony and sustainable development, and also hamony and coordination , the concept and essence of harmony were given. Based on the theory of harmonious degree and the condition of Wuhan, a harmony evaluation indicator system was established with hierarchical structure which was made up of objective layer, constrained layer, subsystem level, criteria layer and indicators. Comprehensive social development indicators, integrated economic development indicators, comprehensive resources development indicators and the environment constitute the constrained layer; Subsystem layer was reflected by criteria layer; criteria layer was reflected by specific evaluation indicators. The number of social subsystem, economic subsystem, resources subsystem and the environment subsystem was respectively 11, 8, 4, 9, with a total of 32 indicators. Finally after independence and viability test the harmony evaluation indicator system was scientific and resonable.With the application of analysis of society, economics, resource, environment system elements and dependence, society, economics, resource, environment harmony evaluation model was established with benefit-balance thoery. It was showed that ecomomic subsystem and social subsystem of Wuhan rised obviously, but resource subsystem and environmental subsystem was unoptimistic; Wuhan City went through the disharmony (1988-1994) -- the verge of disharmony (1995-2000)——inadequate harmony(2001-2004). The experience met the general trend of social, economic, resources and the environment harmonious development, but social system, economy, resources and environmental systems incoordination, economic system and society, resources, environment and inharmonious system disharmony still existed in Wuhan City.Social-economic-resources-environment system harmony forecast model was established based on System Dynamic sand scenario analysis. The Gini coefficient, population, GDP unit energy consumption, emissions and GDP were selected and the system flow chart was constructed; the GDP growth rate, environmental factor inputs and tertiary industries were determined. Four kinds of scenes simulation programs were simulated; Finally harmony evaluation model of four scenes of harmony under the program was conducted to predict. The results showed: Scenario I which maintained that the current mode, Wuhan City in 2010 was only 0.7567; By comparing the four scenarios, Scenario IV, tertiary industry accounted for the GDP increased from 0.491 to 0.55, environmental factor from 0.5 to 0.7, and the GDP growth rate of 11% is the most suitable policy.In the end, based on the result of estimating and forecasting model, the recommendations on building"a harmonious Wuhan"were given. |
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