The Research Of Completion Probability Of The Network Planning Based On Connection Number

Engineering construction projects, especially the large-scale construction projects often have a long construction period, large investment and many uncertain factors and so on. Such many of the uncertainties of the project makes the progress difficult to control, and easily lead to the actual progress of the project deviate from the expected progress. Delays in construction has become prevalent in the construction industry in the world today, for domestic construction projects, especially on this issue. Progress control of the project is one of the three major objectives such as investment control, progress control and quality control, its success direct impact on the other two goals. When the progress of the project is out of control lead to a delay, the contractor should not only increase the human and material resources to the progress of ultra-rush, but also to pay compensation for breach of contract delays in the project, and construction can't benefit from the production schedule, this will seriously affect the interests of multistakholders, so reasonable and effective progress control over the construction management is the top priority.In this paper, study the large-scale construction projects, combined with the actual construction works, considering the impact on the progress of a variety of uncertainties, and introduce into connection number to show the uncertainties, and then considering the theoretical study and practical application, getting the probability of completion and the key line and the key process , at last trying to control progress from the control of key routes to the control of key activities, and then to the control of key factor, step by step implementation of the control project progress.First of all, in this paper expound the research of the delay in the construction and the probability of completion of domestic and foreign, and make an analysis about uncertainty factors of the construction project progress. And then make the content and innovation of this paper.Second, this paper expounds the research program on network planning technology, and focuses on analyzing the PERT network planning.Then, this paper use connection number to reflect the duration of uncertainty because of the uncertain factors in that process, and subdivises the impacting factors according to their importance, and then use the network planning technology based on connection number, combined with Monte Carlo simulation to build a effective method of calculating the probability of completion.Finally, according to the example of the project, obtained the collection of the key routes and analysis this routes how to become into the critical path of the process, and then obtained a key process in order to identify the key factors for the effective project control.