Research On Risk Assessment For Overseas Petroleum Engineering Technology Service Project

Oil is the important strategic resource in our country. The growth of the need for oil in China accounted for 30% of the global growth in 2006. And it is forecasted that fifty percent of oil needed by China will have to be imported from other country by 2020. In order to cope with the huge challenge of petroleum shortage in the future, China, on the one hand, has to enlarge exploitation of conventional and unconventional oil and gas resource, and also to develop vigorously the renewable energy as substitute of petroleum; On the other hand, petroleum enterprises should take part in international competition, and put the strategy of "Go Out" in practice.For Chinese petroleum engineering technology service enterprise, it is an important content of implementing strategy of "Go Out" to undertake international petroleum engineering technology service project. It must face plentiful risks to undertake international petroleum engineering technology service project. In order to rising the probability of project success, it must to be done to systematically analyze the risk events which probably exist in the project, to find out the present and potential risk events and to access and control them.According to the characteristics of international petroleum engineering technology service project, this paper puts forward the risk classification of petroleum engineering technology service project, which classified the risk of petroleum engineering technology service project into policy risks,economical risks,societal risks,other risks. The paper also describes and appraises every kind of risks in detail, and based on the description and appraisement, the paper constructs the risk evaluation indicator system of international petroleum engineering technology service project. The paper uses economics and mathematics theory for reference, and brings forward FHW method to synthetically evaluate the risks of international petroleum engineering technology service project by using the method of FHW, and sets up the risk evaluation model based on FHW. According to actual example of international petroleum engineering technology service project, the paper puts the evaluation indicator system and model into practice. The results of the evaluation show that the evaluation indicator system and model have preferable rationality and feasibility.