| The main purpose of Investment behavior is profit for poplar fast-growing and high-yield plantation development, the operator'goal is to maximize profit. Despite fast-growing and high-yield plantation has a shorter management cycle (rotation) than the average timber, but relative to other investment projects, it is quite long, the business cycle will face many risks and uncertainties, So when we make management decision scientifically and rationally. In fast-growing and high-yield plantation decision-making, mature age is important Problem concerned by every investor, and is a hot spot to many scholars study. Poplar is one of important fast growing tree species with most fine timber in north of china , Studying on mature age of poplar fast-growing and high-yield plantation, especially the economic mature age, to effectively improve the level of intensive management and economic benefit, to realize forestry sustainable development has important significance.In this paper, the economic mature age of poplar fast-growing and high-yield plantation is as the basis for formulating management decision, on the basis of the conventional method (present net worth, internal rate of return) , we study on the entropy technique and expected utility function to determine clear cutting age, and get the best option in order to make the right management decisions. At the same time, to provide a theoretical basis for the investors. 1,Analysis was done on economic maturity of the different density stands using PNW(present net worth) way. The quantity and economical maturity of different dentity stands was different; the maturity age of higher density stands was earlier than that of the lower density stands. And Analysis on economic maturity age and economic benefit of fast-growing and high-yield plantation in the forest-crop intercropping condition was done.The result showed that the economic benefit of 330 tree/hm2 density of poplar is best through principal component analysis of economic benefit under common management condition; The economic mature age advanced with the increasing of discount rate, But the economic benefit of fast-growing and high-yield plantation gradually is decreasing. The economic mature age is smaller in the increase of wood price than that in decrease of wood price. But the economic benefit is increasing as wood price increasing.2,Because of method of single-gold decision, decision-maker often cannot comprehensive measure all schemes to caused difficulty and even lead to error decision.The paper studies clear cutting decision of poplar fast-growing and high-yield plantation for multiple objective. Using annual mean present net worth, internal rate of return, land expected value, benefit cost ratio and profit cost rate as evaluation indices, applied entropy technique method to determine the weight of indices, and the alternatives are ranked by ideal point method,TOPSIS,the linear weighted sum method. Finally, mean value method is used to get the final ranking result. The result shows that 13a,10a,9a,9a is economic mature age of Poplar Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation in the density of 10×10m2,8×8m2,6×8m2,5×6m2 .The mature age of higher density stands was earlier than that of lower density stands. The law is the same with the conventional method of calculation.3,The paper supposes that the cost of production is unchanged and determines the probability of natural state on the basis of the changes of the wood market prices.It applies Bayesian formula to amend transcendental probability, and then calculated fast-growing and high-yield plantation evaluation indices to get the profit and loss value matrix, and it adopts expected utility function to transform the matrix, and it adopts Analytical Hierarchy Process to ascertain the target weight. Finally, it gets the comprehensive evaluation and rank, obtained the economic mature age, as a basis for decision-making. |
