Study Of Chengdu City's Sustainable Development Based On Ecological Footprint Theory

The sustainability of Chengdu city's development was studied through ecological footprint theory and sustainable development evaluation model in this paper.The relation between ecological footprint value per capita and its main influencing factors was also analyzed,and the developing trend of ecological footprint in the future was predicted by the model established on the base of the changing characteristics of this relation.Combined with the theories of municipal sustainable development,the intrinsic relations among ecological,economical,and social aspects of sustainability of Chengdu City's development were further studied,and the countermeasures were discussed.The results showed as follow:(1) The ecological footprint value per capita of Chengdu City increased slowly in recent 20 years(1987-2006),it increased froml.658 hm~2 to 1.986 hm~2.And the consumption of energy sources in it had the largest proportion(66.32%of the ecological footprint consumption.However,the land ecological carrying capacity per capita slowly dropped from0.374 hm2to 0.311 hm~2 in the same term,and the cultivated land had the largest contribution proportion(61.07%of land ecological carrying capacity).The ecological deficit per capita increased from 1.318hm~2 to 1.675hm~2.The ratio of demand and supply of ecological footprint was 5.44:1,and this intense contradiction indicated the severe situation of the ecology in Chengdu City.According to the value and trend changing characteristics of Chengdu City's municipal ecological footprint from 1987 to 2001,ARIMA(2,1,2) model was established to predict the ecological footprint of Chengdu from 2002 to 2006.the fitting precision was 99.74%,its difference randomly distributed in confidence interval and belonged to white noise series,so the model was rational.Chengdu City's municipal ecological footprint from 2008 to 2012 were predicted by using ARIMA(2,1,2) model,and the ecological footprint per capita from 2008 to 2012 were 2.195,2.218,2.246,2.267,2.293 respectively, the ecological carrying capacity per capita were 0.308,0.305,0.302,0.299,0.283 respectively,and the ecological deficit per capita were 1.887,1.913,1.944,1.968,2.010, respectively.These indicated that along with the process of urbanization,the ecological pressure became more and more severe because of the decrease of cultivated land resource which was closely related to ecological carrying capacity.(2) The GDP per capita of Chengdu City increased from 0.38 to 4.47 ten thousand yuan,The ecological footprint for ten thousand yuan GDP dropped from 4.69hm~2 to 0.44hm~2.GDP per capita had very significant negative correlation with the ecological footprint for ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint(R=-0.852,P＜0.01).The economic development capability index increased froml.62 to 2.00,and had significant positive correlation with GDP per capita(R=0.921,P＜0.01).The development capability index increased along with the rising of ecological footprint per capita.The average ecological pressure index of Chengdu was 1.93,which indicated that the development of Chengdu City was insecurity.The population and annual growth of population both had significant positive correlation with ecological footprint per capita(R=0.609 and 0.596,P＜0.01).The growth of population caused the increase of demand per capita,brought more pressure to ecological carrying capability.To ensure the City's sustainable development, strictly control of the population growth should be carried out.The SDI of Chengdu City was 1.12,and its development sustainability just reached the level of "slight good".So the development of Chengdu City was under the state of slight sustainability.(3) According to the status quo and developing trend of development sustainability of Chengdu City,countermeasures were put forward as follows:Maintaining the living standard of people,reduce ecological deficit and ease the pressure on ecological environment from the economic and social development.Carry out the exploitation of reserve land resources and the establishment and improvement of cultivated land protection system to keep the dynamic balance of cultivated land.Improve the basic conditions for agricultural production and its comprehensive production capacity to reduce the pressure on land from production.Strictly control the population and strive to improve the quality of it.Optimize industrial structure,enhance technology innovation, and develop tertiary industry with low pollution and energy consumption.Make best use of existing resources stock and establish a resource-saving production and consumption system.For reducing the dependence of economic development on energy,hydropower, solar and biology energy and other carbon-free resources should be exploited,meanwhile, fossil energy consumption should be reduced.Achieve the regional sustainable development of economy,society and ecology.