Project Risk Analysis Model Research Under High Maturity Risk Management Level

Since project risk management was introduced to China in the eighties of last century, the domestic scholars have carried on a large number of researches to the theory of risk management, but the application of the risk management method in the enterprises and projects is not very extensive. Different organizations and projects are different from each other on management level, namely, have differences in the risk management environments, so simply applying a risk management procedure to all kinds of projects can not achieve the best risk management performance. Therefore, only by judging at first the management environment that organizations and projects are situated in, and then making the risk management procedure in conformity with it, can the performance of risk management be improved effectively.Combining the project risk maturity theory on the basis of existing risk management theory, the risk management maturity model (RMMM) directing against the project risk management field is proposed in the paper, to judge the project risk management level for organizations. At the same time, introduced the thought of risk efficiency, the project risk analysis model under high maturity risk management level is constructed, using three mathematics tools, the fuzzy hierarchy comprehensive optimization model, the analytic hierarchy process, and the neural network of radial base function. This model, gets rid of the experts'marks deviating from the reality through sequencing experts'marks, improving the rationality of the marks given by experts; Acquires the probability value of the risk factor through the neural network, saving experts'resources effectively; draws the weight coefficient of consequence value through the quantization of the risk incident consequence; And appraises the risk according to the risk standard at last. This model is a comparatively simple and common method to carry on risk analysis under the high maturity project management level for an organization, thus, the capability and performance of an organization to manage project risk can be improved effectively.