Listed Company Financial Crisis Early Warning Empirical Study

Along with the fast development of the our country market economy and the stock market, the listed company amount increases gradually, the scale extends gradually.Up to 2007 by the end of 11, Shanghai and Shenzhen two amounts of listed companies arrive 1468 already. With the market growing day by day, whether to the supervisors, such as China Securities Regulatory commission and Securities Exchanges, or to public investors, there is no doubt that it can hold the fundamentality of securities business and also the opportunity of success to set up a system of financial crisis early-warning using the financial data of the listed companies, which can guarding against and dissolving financial risk and crisis thus and effectively.On the foundation of predecessors'studies, the thesis takes the listed companies as the object of study, and intends to establish the early-warning model of financial crisis through demonstration method. On one hand, the model can disclose those listed companies which have plunged into financial crisis for the supervisors and the public investors, in order to supervise and control the financial standing of listed company in time, as to it's the finance crisis carry on an early warning, and do a reasonable and viable decision.The full text is totally divided into five parts:The first part preface, the introduction chooses background, purpose and meaning of.The second part the academic review of financial crisis early-warning introducing a domestic and international early-warning research of the finance crisis.During the third part, we have analyzed the theory of financial crisis early-warning, and have discussed the following contents: financial crisis and financial crisis early-warning, the studying method of financial crisis early-warning, and the choice of index.Four-part divide diverse line discretion analysis the model set up, definitioning this text research object and design to study sample, passing quantitative analysis, making use of a Fisher discretion standard to build up two line a discretion model.The fifth part study conclusion and it limits sex, tallying up a substantial evidence research the conclusion of and exist of limit sex, and put forward a future research direction.The innovation of this thesis:1.this text apply diverse covariance analysis in of distinguish analysis-two types of discretions in Fischer and SPSS statistics analysis tool, building up the early-warning model of crisis of the listed company finance.2. During the choosing of studying sample, considering the instability of company's total assets, selects the scale of total capital which is relatively stable as the standard of choosing controlling samples.3. the cash discharge index sign's drawing up a basis is a cash to accept to pay to make, basic be free from an accountancy the influence of the policy choice, the early-warning index sign chooses to use in common use finance index sign and leads to go into cash current liability a ratio, each cash discharge etc. cash discharge index sign.The researching conclusion of this thesis:1.this text apply diverse covariance analysis in of distinguish analysis-two types of discretions in Fischer and SPSS statistics analysis tool, building up two early-warning model of crisis of the listed company finances.The total discretion rate of these two models comes to a 93.8%, 92.2% respectively.2. We have discovered in the research that those indexes, such as asset-liability ratio, total property rate of turnover, each income, net assets of per share and so on, have remarkable discriminant function.3.It is a gradual process that the listed companies plunge into financial crisis, with the worsening degree and enlarging scope of financial indexes, the listed companies will get into financial crisis gradually, therefore, it's necessary to carry on a multi-period research of financial crisis early-warning.In studying the foundation of a year before taking place of finance crisis, and then carried on the early-warning research of 2 years before taking place of crisis, the early-warning model of the finance crisis of middle of establishment.