The Modelling Of Chinese Financial CGE And Agricultural Credit Policy Simulating

Since 1980s,Computable General Equilibrium model is becoming an effective instrument of policy analysis and simulating forcast ,because of its unique advantage,that is,it reflects the interacts between multi-sectors and multi-institurions and market organism.It is widely applied in all areas for policy quantitative simulating analysis. The Financial Computable General Equilibrium model (FCGE) can reflect the operation of the economic society completely, because of the introduction of financial sectors and financial instruments. Especially, today, the financial market becomes stronger and stronger, the role the financial sectors play becomes more and more evident, the financial instruments becomes more and more richful, applying FCGE for policy simulating has become the issue that the people focus and research. Especially , in China , the financial market tends to be perfect, the role it plays also become stronger and stronger gradually, so , establishing a Financial Computable General Equilibrium model to policy simulating analysis becomes a real demand. Because of this , according to the China's practice, the dissertation establishes a financial CGE model to simulate the impact agricultural credit policy products on the national econonic industries and institutions.In the dissertation, there are five chapters in all, Chapter 1 introduces the background,research purpose and the innovation points; Chapter 2 is the overview of the literature, first it traces the history and development of CGE model, and the research and application of the financial CGE model ; Chapter 3 presents the blocks in the established financial CGE model,including input-output block, domestic final demand block , price block ,financial portfolio block, income and expenditure block , market clearing and financial closure block; Chapter 4 introduces construction of the Financial Social Accounting Matrix ,which is the database of the established Financial Computable General Equilibrium model , and the calibration of the model parameters ,which is the basis the model depends on. Chapter 5 introduces the procedure implementation of the model and the simulating settings and the simulating results analysis, in the dissertation , five agricultural credit policy settings are simulated,namely, the agircultural loan interest rate varies 1 percent,2 percents, 3 percents, 4 persents, 5 persents by turns respective to the baseline level , and employs GAMS simulating the settings , showing the impact degree that the agricultural loan interest rate variation imposes on the macro variables.