Study On Investment Estimation Methods Of Real Estate Development Projects Under Uncertain Factors

The main content of this paper is the study on investment estimation methods of real estate development projects, which introduces the current research situation and result at home and abroad in the relevant field, and proposes an investment estimation method of real estate development projects under uncertain factors combing the actual situation of Kunming area.First, it summarizes the current investment estimation methods in our country, putting forward a system of investment estimation methods, including estimation methods of structure relation, causal relation, time series relation, and the estimation method based on modern mathematic theory, which has established a foundation of effective acquirement of the investment estimation results.Second, it summarizes the relevant regulation on various cost estimations of total investment in real estate, and specifies the charge standard and toll rate on various costs in accordance with the situation of Kunming area, which has high operability.Total investment in real estate projects is divided into investment under certainty and investment under uncertainty. For the investment under uncertainty, the maximum, minimum and most possible value of various cost in the investment under uncertainty are estimated respectively based on the data of constructed projects and estimation model established by using regression analysis, considering the effect of uncertain factors on construction. For the investment under certainty, it can be estimated according to national policy and enterprise situation. Finally, all the cost can be combined into some possible total investment value, and with normal distribution considered as probability distribution model of total investment estimation value (random variables). As a result, decision-maker can understand both the distribution range of the total investment and the occurring probability of different investment estimation value, and then expected value of the total investment can be calculated according to requirement.